I don’t have any great insights on the war. It’s probably more notable what I don’t know or don’t think than what I do.
I think I write adequate prose, possibly verging on good, but unfortunately I do it extremely slowly. I wavered for half an hour over “shall I just get Grok to write up these notes properly”, rather than take two weeks to get round to doing it myself, and finally plumped for just posting the notes. If you want them turned into a real article, you can use the LLM of your choice.
Not gone as well as Trump expected
Probably a mistake. I don’t think he would have gone for it if he knew we would be here today.
Israel
I’m not an Israel-hater or an Israel-lover.
The argument that Israeli govt & allies in DC manipulated US into war is very strong.
By itself that doesn’t make it bad (though it probably is).
Not a repeat of Afghanistan/Iraq
But possibly worse…
Iraq military was defeated quickly – the problems came with occupation and working with a new government.
Even that might have been successful if the new government was explicitly subordinate to the US, not some stupid democracy.
Problem of Iran is completely different – the military is not defeated.
It is possible that the attacks on military, infrastructure & command are destroying it, and it is a matter of weeks or months until it is gone. Also possible that there is a level of functioning govt & military that will survive years/indefinitely, like Ukraine. Way beyond my expertise to say which. Who is going to run out of missiles / money / civilian morale first? Don’t ask me. These questions are really complex and I can’t see anything clearly through the propaganda.
I have confidence that Trump has no intention whatever of occupying Iran and supporting some new govt, assuming the war goes well enough that that even becomes a possiblity.
Not the same as “no boots on the ground”, raids & incursions are already happening, I think.
Exit Strategy
If Trump can’t get out of it in a reasonable timeframe, he is 100% done.
Negotiating some kind of deal is a realistic possibility, depending on how well the actual fighting goes (and I can’t tell).
Again, occupation and US-backed regime was never on the table.
Apparently the Israelis like Pahlavi. I’m a royalist but the consensus seems to be that that’s not realistic. Complete regime change is not even a goal. If it happens, that’s fine, but the war could be moderately successful just by sufficiently intimidating the existing regime.
I don’t know what the attitudes & factions are of the Iranian population, and I don’t believe anything I am told about them.
Hormuz
Markets seem to believe the impact on shipping will not be sustained. Presumably they think everybody involved has strong enough interests in getting it moving that it is inevitable. We are watching a game of chicken, and one side or the other has to swerve.
Note that Russia is still paying Ukraine fees to carry oil or gas through its pipelines (I think). The spice must flow.
My impression is that the US can’t fix it by force except by basically winning the war (which is not out of the question).
Alternative theory: we are really heading for a New World Order where gulf oil is unavailable, US sits pretty on its own supplies, and Europe & Asia suffer? Seems far-fetched. Massively helps Russia. Lots of practical complications around refining etc. Can US become self-sufficient (“net exporter” is not the same thing, because of those complications) quicker than a Russia → China route solves their problems?
Upsides
As far as I can see, the main gain of all this is seeing how modern technologies and military doctrines actually work in a real war, and building that experience into everything from the Pentagon to industry to the men on the front lines.
Destroying the fake & gay “rules based international order” is also a plus. “What if Russia tried assassinations” lol. “what does Kier Starmer think?” who gives a shit?
Related, show of strength and willingness to use it is a benefit for the US. However, that depends on it not being an obvious failure. Too soon to say.
Also lancing the boil, so to speak. This Iran thing, and the nuke issue especially, has been hanging as a threat for decades. Just getting it over with maybe makes things better? On the other hand, that’s what people said in 1914 and it didn’t work out, while the Cold War never got to that stage and that’s probably a good thing. Pretty damned thin as an argument.
Is there an argument that if it ends fairly well, it cements Trumpism? The line would be, we have a new kind of US leadership that wins wars and doesn’t drag them out into pointless sinks of lives and money. Maybe if it had been a crushing success in three weeks that would have happened. I think we’re already past the stage where it could be a triumph, we’re just hoping for “not as bad as we feared”.